A lot of bettors assume that buying points in the NBA is negative value.
A point in the NBA happens quickly and is not valuable. When a point spread is small each point becomes more valuable but risky. Buying multiple points off of the spread is expensive. In the NBA it typically costs $.10 for every ½ point you want to buy.The nature of scoring in the NBA is far different than the NFL. Thinking a half point, 2 or 3 points will give you an edge is wishful thinking. The NBA has many variables that cause point swings on each side. Hot and cold shooting streaks, 3-point scoring, free throw misses, foul troubles, lazy defense and bench scoring.
How to assign a value on how much NBA points are worth
How to determine if you should buy points and place a value on how much certain points are worth is a percentage play. You need to hit 52.4% of your bets to break even at –110 odds. If you buy a full point and knock the spread down, the cost is .20 which lowers the spread but costs –130. At –130 odds you have to win 56.52% to break-even. You need to win 4.12% more often than –110 to break even.
Buying ½ points or more in the NBA is rarely effective. Most bookmakers allow you to purchase multiple points off of the spread for the extra juice. In the NBA the most common winning margins are 7 to 10 points between competitive teams. The NBA has a wide gap in team talent and stronger teams prevail.
Betting sides or totals in the NBA is a roller coaster ride when scoring varies widely from each quarter. No bet is safe until the fourth quarter and buying points is not much of an edge.
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